Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.016809 0.019049 0.021496 0.024373 0.027665 0.031319 0.035690
2024-10-06 0.013607 0.016725 0.020438 0.025200 0.031169 0.038430 0.047977
2024-10-13 0.011169 0.014476 0.018643 0.024306 0.031848 0.041608 0.055296
2024-10-20 0.009640 0.013043 0.017531 0.023928 0.032884 0.045083 0.063143
2024-10-27 0.008307 0.011653 0.016240 0.023048 0.032995 0.047157 0.069125
2024-11-03 0.007763 0.011261 0.016233 0.023895 0.035550 0.052849 0.080905
2024-11-10 0.007253 0.010846 0.016121 0.024533 0.037809 0.058282 0.092878
2024-11-17 0.006804 0.010462 0.015995 0.025105 0.039981 0.063756 0.105512
2024-11-24 0.006215 0.009797 0.015363 0.024792 0.040672 0.066887 0.114578
2024-12-01 0.005722 0.009233 0.014827 0.024564 0.041448 0.070189 0.124261
2024-12-08 0.005296 0.008735 0.014348 0.024367 0.042230 0.073542 0.134372
2024-12-15 0.005058 0.008525 0.014319 0.024929 0.044375 0.079480 0.149923
2024-12-22 0.004704 0.008097 0.013896 0.024779 0.045268 0.083331 0.162160
2024-12-29 0.004544 0.007992 0.014028 0.025646 0.048143 0.091208 0.183419
2025-01-05 0.004134 0.007405 0.013246 0.024733 0.047510 0.092237 0.190767
2025-01-12 0.003842 0.007006 0.012769 0.024348 0.047858 0.095215 0.202559
2025-01-19 0.003510 0.006508 0.012064 0.023452 0.047078 0.095799 0.209181
2025-01-26 0.003428 0.006474 0.012238 0.024315 0.050000 0.104405 0.234901
2025-02-02 0.003325 0.006391 0.012305 0.024965 0.052534 0.112452 0.260421
2025-02-09 0.003221 0.006296 0.012341 0.025548 0.054977 0.120562 0.287200
2025-02-16 0.003029 0.006011 0.011970 0.025228 0.055384 0.124103 0.303215
2025-02-23 0.002861 0.005762 0.011653 0.024996 0.055961 0.128094 0.320904
2025-03-02 0.002710 0.005535 0.011362 0.024796 0.056588 0.132267 0.339634